2012-11-01
2012-11-30
x pennsylvania
x The Rachel Maddow Show

STATION
MSNBC 13
MSNBCW 13
LANGUAGE
English 26

Set Clip Length:


to lead in like ohio and florida. we'll pick up pennsylvania. we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> e see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they lost every single one of those states. even though it seemed like he was going to win all of those states the day before the election. he didn't say like he felt they were going to win. he said they have the polling data that showed they were going to win and they did not win in any of those states. this is just part of the way the game is played. it's just bluffing. and that is important context for understanding what's going on in the last four days of the campaign. there are patterns to how presidential elections end. some of the same stuff happens every four years. specifically, in 1992, the republican candidate was poppy bush. he went and campaigned in pennsylvania. and then the next day, he lost pennsylvania. the next election, 1996

, florida, after 24,000 people turned out to hear him in virginia. think about that. 24,000 in virginia. 23,000 people in florida today. in concord, new hampshire, this morning, when 14,000 people turned out to hear president obama, that was the largest crowd ever assembled for a political event in the entire state in new hampshire. in the entire history of the state of new hampshire. i realize new hampshire may not be big, but new hampshire is old. and this is the biggest political rally ever held in the state of new hampshire for the entire time that new hampshire has existed. we cannot be sure why more people are turning out to hear president obama today than are turning out to hear mitt romney. maybe it's just the power of incumbency. governor romney's rallies have been quite smaller, but these are quite good crowds all around. for both campaigns. in relative terms and in absolute terms. now it's the part of the campaign where we also start watching another variety of huge crowds. look at this. oh, man. crowds of people lining up to vote in florida. we have been getting reports that the

cain is leading in the states he's got to lead in like ohio and florida. we're going to pick up pennsylvania. we'll think we got a real good shot in virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. you know, that's the pathway to victory for john mccain and we're excited. we're hoping to see a lot of people out there in chicago on election night with barack obama experiencing a long, cold night, as we learn that john mccrane surprised them and won. >> it's nice he wishes physical discomfort on his political enemies, just gratuitously throwing that in. but notice what exactly he was so confidently predicting there. the day before the election in 2008, it was mitt romney. these were his predictions for states that john mccain was definitely going to win. >> john mccain is leading in the states he's got to lead in like ohio and florida. we'll pick up pennsylvania. we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> you see how all those states were blue? mr. romney's confident predictions that john mccain was going to win ohio,

in cincinnati, ohio. the president drew a crowd of 23,000 people this afternoon in hollywood, florida, after 24,000 people turned out last night to hear him in virginia. think about that. 24,000 in virginia last night. 23,000 people in florida today. in concord, new hampshire, this morning, when 14,000 people turned out to hear president obama, that was the largest crowd ever assembled for a political event in the entire state of new hampshire. in the entire history of the state of new hampshire. i realize new hampshire may not be big, but new hampshire is old. and this is the biggest political rally ever held in the state of new hampshire for the entire time that new hampshire has existed. we cannot be sure why more people are turning out to hear president obama today than are turning out to hear mitt romney. maybe it's just the power of incumbency. people want to hear a president speak no matter who the president is just because he's a president. governor romney's rallies have today have been significantly smaller than obama's. for the romney campaign, these are really quite good crowds. all

carried 28 states last time, he carried 26 or 27 states this time, depending on how florida goes. that means republicans did lose everything else, but got back indiana and also north carolina. so it was not a totally hopeless night for republicans. also, hey, remember the crazy thaddeus mccotter seat in michigan, where thaddeus mccotter screwed up and they had to run this reindeer herder, santa claus impersonator for the seat, a guy whose own brother says he's crazy. that guy won. the shirtless reindeer guy won. so the republicans have him. big picture in the house, thanks mostly to redistricting the republicans were not in danger of losing the house, and they didn't legal cause it, even though the republican majority appears to have shrunk there. and even though they did get the reindeer guy. but in terms of, honestly, of what went well for republicans in this election, that was pretty much it. it is a short list. want to talk about what went well on the other side last night? i'm actually going to pause for a second to give you a chance to hit pause on your dvr in case you want

. and then this year the republican convention in tampa, florida, had to be delayed for a day due to another hurricane, hurricane isaac. the biggest true october surprise we have ever had where it wasn't just affecting a convention or something else in the campaign but it was right before the election, the biggest true october surprise we ever had was that one in 1956. the only other arguably really big one besides 1956 what was happened in 2004. that year it was not a hurricane. it was not a war abroad. it wasn't a natural disaster of any kind. it wasn't something one of our allies did. that year it was bin laden. >> tonight osama bin laden has a message for america four days before this country votes. >> reporter: it's the first new video from osama bin laden, himself, in more three years. an extraordinary statement addressed to an american audience with direct references to the two presidential candidates. he says, quote, your security is not in the hands of kerry or bush or al qaeda, it's in your hands. the big question tonight, why release a tape apparently timed to come out on the eve of the u.s

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